Zana Mozzafari

Economic growth is one of the main concepts in macroeconomics, which is a function of various variables. One of the important and influential variables on Iran's economic growth is oil revenues, so that its increase and decrease are strongly affected by the Iranian economy. On the other hand, the exchange rate, as a key variable in determining the competitive strength of various sectors of the economy and regulating foreign trade relations, plays a vital role in economic growth and development. Any deviation of the exchange rate from the equilibrium level not only causes market instability and increases production costs, but can also lead to inappropriate allocation of resources, reduced investment in productive sectors, and the expansion of unproductive activities. The present study was conducted with the aim of examining the impact of oil revenues and exchange rate deviations on Iran's economic growth during the period 1370 to 1402. In order to better explain and analyze the research topic, intervening variables such as inflation, unemployment, and foreign direct investment have been included in the research model. In this study, vector autoregression test was used to estimate the model. The findings of the study show that oil revenues have a positive effect on economic growth, while exchange rate deviation has a negative effect on economic growth. Also, economic growth in Iran is affected by inflation, unemployment, and foreign direct investment variables. So that inflation and unemployment have a negative effect and foreign investment has a positive effect on economic growth in Iran. According to the data of the instantaneous response functions, in the short term, shocks from oil revenues and foreign direct investment lead to a positive reaction in economic growth, but shocks from exchange rate deviation, inflation, and unemployment have a negative effect on economic growth. In addition, in the medium and long term, the above variables are relatively stable, but economic growth has performed poorly and has not been able to increase sustainably. Another important conclusion of the present study is that past values of oil revenue variables, exchange rate deviations, and other intervening variables do not have the necessary ability to predict economic growth and these variables are not Granger causes of economic growth. Considering these results, policymakers should focus on the stability of inflation control and exchange rate deviation management to ensure the long-term effectiveness of foreign direct investment and the optimal conversion of oil revenues into productive investments. Such an approach makes the positive effects of shocks more stable and their negative effects on economic growth less. Therefore, in order to achieve economic growth, it is necessary to manage the impact of each of the above variables through effective and efficient policies and optimal use of resources.

Despite their rich natural potential, the countries of the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) have been deprived of sustainable growth due to chronic political, financial and economic instability. These risks hinder economic development by creating uncertainty, reducing foreign investment, disrupting resource allocation and intensifying recessionary cycles, and double the need for their empirical investigation. The main objective of the research is to examine the impact of political, financial and economic risks on the economic growth of MENA countries in the period 2000-2024, focusing on direct, nonlinear and systemic spillover effects. The research uses the generalized moments model (GMM) on panel data of 13 countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, etc.) and the data are extracted from the World Bank and PRS indices. The analysis was performed with EViews and Excel and the validity of the model was confirmed with stationary tests (Levin-Lin-Chu), F-Limmer, Hausman, Sargan and AR(2). Complementary models including threshold panel and quantile regression were used to examine nonlinear effects. All three risks have significant negative effects; political risk, with a dominant dominance (strongest direct and spillover effects), disrupts stability and structurally reduces growth, while financial risk undermines banking stability and economic risk undermines macro-balance. The threshold model identified critical thresholds (political: 70, financial: 70, economic: 65) and quantile regression highlighted the financial effect at low levels of growth. The model explained 78% of the growth variation. All three hypotheses were confirmed and the absolute priority is to reduce political risk through diplomacy, anti-corruption and institution building to improve growth by 4-6%. Recommendations including financial stabilization funds, banking supervision and economic diversification were presented to achieve sustainable stability.

In recent years, cyberspace has emerged as one of the most influential factors shaping economic behavior, particularly in developing countries such as Iran. The rapid expansion of social media and the real - time dissemination of information—both official and unofficial—have increasingly made uncertainty arising from digital platforms a key driver of inflation expectations and economic decision - making among households, businesses, and even policymakers. In this context, the present study investigates the impact of digital uncertainty on Iran’s inflation rate over the quarterly period from 2011 to 2024. To analyze the relationships among variables, the study employs the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) econometric method, which enables the examination of long - term interactions among macroeconomic indicators. The key finding reveals a positive and statistically significant effect of digital uncertainty on inflation. In other words, the spread of misinformation, rumors, and informational instability across social media platforms creates a psychologically volatile environment, heightening inflation expectations and encouraging hoarding and speculative behaviors, ultimately fueling inflation. Moreover, the results indicate that liquidity exerts the strongest positive and significant impact on the inflation rate, followed by the exchange rate, which also plays a substantial role in elevating the general price level. In contrast, gross domestic product (GDP) has a negative effect on inflation, suggesting that expanding the country's productive capacity can help alleviate price pressures. Based on these findings, it is recommended that economic policymakers enhance transparency and credibility in official communications while also adopting more effective governance strategies to regulate and manage digital platforms. Furthermore, sustainably controlling inflation requires a coordinated policy mix that includes curbing monetary expansion, stabilizing the exchange rate, promoting domestic production, and reforming the national budgetary structure.

Population, as one of the fundamental concepts in economic and social fields, has wide-ranging effects on various aspects of human life. Population growth can increase the labor force and economic growth, but at the same time, it can bring challenges such as pressure on natural resources and public services. Meanwhile, financial development, as one of the main pillars of economic development, plays a key role in improving the quality of life and improving social indicators by expanding financial infrastructure, facilitating access to financial services, and increasing the level of investment. In this regard, there is a complex relationship between population growth and financial development. Therefore, the present study has examined the impact of financial development on population growth in selected developing countries that are members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. This study was conducted for the period 2002 to 2022 and aims to analyze the complex relationships between financial development and population growth. In this study, the generalized method of moments (GMM) has been used to analyze data and evaluate the main variables of financial development and population, as well as other variables. The findings show that financial development has a negative and significant impact on population growth. That is, by improving infrastructure and financial services such as banking, savings, investment and social insurance, the population growth rate decreases. Government spending in the countries studied can lead to a decrease in population growth and migration by reducing the quality of life, financial pressure on households. Also, life expectancy and economic growth also have a positive and significant impact on population growth, leading to an increase in population and reducing mortality rates, improving health services and improving the level of welfare of the society, which in turn has an impact on demographic indicators. Also, an increase in the employment rate of women is associated with a decrease in population growth. This is usually accompanied by a delay in the age of marriage and a decrease in the total birth rate, which can lead to a decrease in the population growth rate.

Income inequality, as the uneven distribution of wealth and income among individuals in society, is of particular importance in the economy and society. This phenomenon refers to the uneven distribution of wealth and income among individuals and different groups in society, and income inequality not only affects the economic well-being of individuals, but also has widespread social, political, and even environmental consequences. Income inequality can lead to reduced economic growth, reduced investment, increased social costs such as increased crime, and increased class gaps. In this regard, industrialization is one of the factors that can affect income inequality. Industrialization has complex effects on income inequality in different societies. On the one hand, industrialization can reduce income inequality by creating new jobs, increasing productivity, and increasing labor demand. On the other hand, industrialization can lead to increased income inequality by increasing the demand for skilled labor and differences in the level of access to education and technical skills. Accordingly, the main objective of the present study is to examine the impact of industrialization on income inequality in selected developing countries during the period 2005 to 2022 using the quantile regression method. The results of this study show that the industrialization index in the first, sixth, and seventh deciles has a positive and significant effect on income inequality in selected developing countries. In the third and fourth deciles, it has a negative effect, and in the remaining deciles, it has a positive effect on the income inequality index in selected developing countries, but it is not significant. In the first decile, a 1-unit increase in the value added rate of the industrial sector has caused an increase of 0.1033 units of income inequality in selected developing countries, while in the third decile, a 1-unit increase in the value added rate of the industrial sector has caused a decrease of 0.013 units of income inequality in selected developing countries. Based on the research results, it is suggested that policymakers design and implement programs to support vulnerable deciles. These programs could include job skills training, facilitating access to job opportunities in the industrial sector, and creating financial incentives for investment in underserved areas to reduce income inequality and contribute to sustainable development.

In modern economics, investment is considered a fundamental element in economic development and value creation within enterprises. Enhancing investment efficiency through the careful and optimal selection of financial resources can lead to economic growth and prosperity. In other words, inefficiencies in investment can not only reduce the market value of companies but also negatively impact the optimal allocation of resources at a macroeconomic level. Monetary policies, which serve as key tools for central banks, have extensive effects on economic stability and the direction of financial flows. These policies, through variables such as interest rates and liquidity levels, can directly influence investor behavior and the decisions made by companies. For instance, expansionary monetary policies can reduce the risk of investment and provide greater certainty for investors by lowering interest rates and financing costs. Additionally, the comparability of accounting information plays a critical role in the disclosure of financial information, significantly impacting financial decision-making processes. This capability aids investors in conducting more accurate analyses of investment opportunities by reducing information asymmetry and increasing transparency in financial data. Consequently, the comparability of accounting information is regarded as an effective factor in enhancing investment efficiency under various economic conditions. Accordingly, this study examines the relationship between monetary policy and investment efficiency with the moderating role of accounting information comparability. The statistical sample for this study consists of 134 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over an 11-year period, from 2013 to 2023. For data analysis, a multivariate regression method was employed using panel data. The research findings indicate that monetary policy has a positive and significant impact on the investment efficiency of companies. Furthermore, the results reveal a negative and significant effect of monetary policy on underinvestment. Therefore, it can be stated that during the implementation of expansionary monetary policies, the level of underinvestment can be reduced. Additionally, the findings show that the comparability of accounting information plays a positive and significant moderating role in the relationship between monetary policy and investment efficiency. Thus, this capability can facilitate increased investment efficiency during the execution of expansionary monetary policies. The research results indicate that the comparability of accounting information has a negative and significant moderating effect on the relationship between monetary policy and underinvestment. Therefore, it can be asserted that enhancing the comparability of accounting information can effectively mitigate the negative effects induced by contractionary monetary policies. This study emphasizes the importance of improving the quality of financial information and strengthening the comparability of accounting information as a key tool for enhancing investment efficiency within various political and economic frameworks.

Income inequality is one of the central issues in the fields of economics and social development, significantly affecting various aspects of human life. This issue, characterized by the uneven distribution of wealth and opportunities within a society, can lead to increased class disparities and social tensions. Income inequality not only diminishes the quality of life for low-income individuals but also hampers social activities and slows economic growth. Therefore, analyzing the factors contributing to income inequality and identifying strategies to mitigate it is of paramount importance. Alongside income inequality, economic security plays a crucial role as another key factor in determining the quality of life and economic development. Economic security refers to the creation of conditions in which individuals and businesses can operate without concerns about economic instability and risks. It provides an environment where people in society can easily access economic resources and opportunities, allowing them to look toward the future with greater confidence. Neglecting economic security can lead to heightened social and economic risks, reduced public trust in institutions and policies, and, ultimately, deepened income inequality. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of economic security on income inequality in Iran during the period 1368 to 1400 (1989–2021) using a quantile regression model. This research seeks to evaluate the role and influence of key economic variables on income inequality, with a particular emphasis on the importance of economic security. The findings of this study indicate that economic security, the share of health expenditures, the size of government, and foreign direct investment have a negative and significant effect on income inequality, implying that increases in these factors lead to a reduction in income inequality. In contrast, variables such as inflation rate, unemployment rate, and urbanization exhibit a positive and significant effect on income inequality in Iran, indicating that an increase in these factors intensifies income inequality. These findings can assist policymakers in accurately identifying the factors influencing income inequality and analyzing their effects, thus enabling them to propose appropriate measures to reduce the income gap and improve social justice. Moreover, the results underscore the importance of economic security in reducing income inequality and achieving sustainable development and social justice. Ultimately, this research can serve as a foundation for future studies on income inequality and economic security and can play an influential role in shaping macroeconomic policies.

In this research, the effect of production capacities on economic growth in a selection of developed, developing and less developed countries during the period of 2000-2022 has been investigated. In order to collect the research data, the databases of the World Bank and UNCTAD have been used. Also, for statistical analysis, according to the nature of the model and the type of data, the econometric methods of the panel data approach using the generalized moments method have been used. In order to achieve better results, the logarithm of the variables has been used in this research. To examine this issue in more detail, to examine the effect of sub-indicators of production capacity (which are seven components including energy, human capital, structural changes, private sector, information and communication technology, institutions and natural capital) on economic growth in 101 developing countries. 37 developed countries and 38 less developed countries have been covered. In general, and according to the results of the research, the effect of these seven sub-indicators in the three groups of countries under investigation can be very wide and multifaceted. These factors can have a positive or negative effect on economic growth, sustainable development and people's living conditions. According to the findings of the research, energy, information and communication technology and institutions have had a positive and significant impact on economic growth in all three groups of countries under investigation. Human capital has had a negative effect in developed and developing countries and has had a positive and significant effect in less developed countries. Structural changes have had a negative effect on developing countries and a positive effect on the other two groups of countries. The private sector has a negative effect in developed and less developed countries, but it has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in developing countries. Natural capital also has a negative effect on economic growth in all three groups of countries under investigation.

Food security, defined as consistent and adequate access to safe and nutritious food for all individuals at all times, is a fundamental challenge in the world today, particularly in developing countries. In this context, developing countries face difficulties in providing food for their growing populations. The age structure of the population is a key tool for understanding and analyzing food security issues, the examination of which allows for the adoption of appropriate economic strategies in different parts of the world. Addressing issues related to food security requires examining the human population as well as the effects of different age groups on macroeconomic variables. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the age structure of the population on food security in Iran. In the present study, using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) over the period 1369 to 1401 (Iranian calendar years, roughly corresponding to 1990-2023), the impact of the age structure of the population on food security in Iran is investigated. The results indicate that the middle-aged group (15-64 years old) in Iran has a positive effect, while the young age group (0-14 years old) and the elderly age group (65 years and older) have a negative effect on food security. Furthermore, urbanization has a negative effect, and economic growth has a positive and significant effect on food security. Considering the positive effect of the middle-aged group (15-64 years) on food security, development policies and programs should focus on increasing the participation of this group in economic activities and food production. This can be achieved through job creation, education and skills training, and social and economic support. Given the negative impact of the two age groups (elderly and young) on food security, policies should focus on supporting these groups. This can be achieved through school feeding programs, health care, and social and economic support for families with children and the elderly.

Today, environmental degradation stands as one of the most significant threats to human security. The destruction of ecosystems leads to increased global temperatures, pollution, climate change, and the depletion of natural resources and biodiversity. Climate change primarily stems from human activities and the emission of harmful pollutants, acting as a major factor in environmental instability and hindering sustainable development. The rapid population growth in recent decades has also exacerbated the pressure on ecosystems, resulting in the overconsumption of natural resources and arable land for food production. To assess environmental quality and the extent of human impact on ecosystems, researchers utilize the comprehensive Ecological Footprint (EF) indicator. This indicator comprises six variables: carbon emissions, cropland, water bodies, grazing land, forests, and built - up land. Monetary and fiscal policies, as crucial government policies, influence not only economic and production activities but also the environment. When governments prioritize economic growth and development, increased government spending, loans, and facilities lead to higher production activities, energy consumption, pollution, and natural resource exploitation, ultimately resulting in environmental degradation. Therefore, this thesis aims to investigate the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the EF in Iran from 1980 to 2021 using the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) method. The volume of liquidity and government consumption expenditures are employed as monetary and fiscal policy proxies, respectively. Economic growth, urbanization, and foreign direct investment (FDI) are included as control variables. The findings indicate that monetary and fiscal policies and economic growth positively and significantly impact the EF. Conversely, FDI and urbanization have a negative and significant impact on the EF. Moreover, monetary and fiscal policy shocks lead to an increase in the EF in the long run. Variance decomposition analysis for the tenth period demonstrates that monetary and fiscal policies explain 6.70% and 24.06% of the EF variations, respectively.

The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between institutional factors and economic growth on poverty and inequality in selected Asian countries from 1990 to 2020, using spatial econometrics. Based on the obtained results, the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the region is confirmed. The research findings indicate that institutional factors have positive and significant spatial effects on poverty in the examined countries, both directly and indirectly. Additionally, economic growth and domestic investment have a positive and significant impact on poverty reduction. Economic growth, government stability, corruption control, democracy index, and financial development have positive and meaningful effects on reducing inequality. Financial development facilitates access for low-income individuals to financial resources and credit. An effective financial system can guide investments along the optimal path. The research results confirm the positive impacts of effective financial development on reducing inequality. The quality of institutional factors, influencing areas such as freedom of expression and government accountability, contributes to improving government performance. Economic growth can create welfare and opportunities. Strong growth generates new job opportunities, increasing the income of poor individuals and motivating them to invest in their children's future. Economic growth increases the overall income of society and creates more jobs, income, and opportunities that can be redistributed.

Income inequality is one of the important challenges that developing countries face. This can lead to poverty, social insecurity and political instability. Financial development and financial technology, if not equally available to all people, can intensify this mechanism of income inequality and lead to a further increase in its distribution. , has attracted the attention of world economists. Therefore, investigating the factors affecting income inequality and trying to reduce it is of particular importance. Therefore, using the GMM method and panel data, this research has investigated the impact of financial technology and financial development on income inequality in selected developing countries in the period from 2005 to 2022. The results show that financial development and financial technology have a negative and significant effect on income inequality. The reason for this is that financial development and financial technology help improve access to financial resources for low-income groups. So it makes these people have more opportunities to invest and earn money. In addition to financial development and financial technology, other factors also affect income inequality. Economic growth, inflation and urbanization also have a positive and significant effect on income inequality. Economic growth can lead to an increase in income inequality. This means that people with higher skills can benefit from the opportunities created in the growth economy. Inflation can also lead to an increase in income inequality. Because inflation reduces the value of money and people with a fixed income suffer more. Urbanization can also lead to an increase in income inequality. Because the cost of living in cities is higher and people with lower incomes face problems to meet their needs. Government spending also has a negative and significant effect on income inequality, because government spending can help improve access to education, health, and other social services for low-income groups. This allows these people to improve their skills and have more opportunities to earn money.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of age population on the inflation rate of the provinces of Iran. According to the life cycle theory, the young age group has more consumption than other age groups, and the young and middle age groups have more consumption than the young groups. Inflation also refers to the pressure caused by the increase in consumption and as a result increases the prices. This research investigates and analyzes the effect of population structure changes on the inflation rate of the country's provinces by using the panel data method and for the time periods of 1395 to 1399 and also considering the above two theories. The research results indicate that the young (0-14) and middle-aged (65 and above) age groups in the provinces have a positive and significant effect on inflation. Also, the young age group (15-64) has a negative and significant effect on inflation in the provinces, and among the age groups, they have the greatest effect on the inflation rate. Other controls, such as GDP growth rate, have a significant and negative effect on savings and spending credit. According to the results of this research about the fact that the country and the provinces have a young population, they can expect that it will increase to the highest level in the coming years by entering the young population

Reducing environmental pollution and achieving an economy combined with a clean environment is one of the main goals of the sustainable development economy of any country. In this regard, investigating the economic dimensions of greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide emissions, and its environmental effects, especially in the current situation where the volume of carbon dioxide emissions is increasing rapidly, is of significant importance. Because in a country rich in natural resources such as Iran, the industrialization of today's societies, economic growth, urbanization growth, commercial liberalization, etc. have caused the excessive extraction of natural resources for the production of goods and services; And it is followed by the emission of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. Therefore, in this thesis, the effect of abundance of natural resources on environmental pollution during the period of 1990-2020 has been investigated using the threshold regression method. Also, in this thesis, the abundance of natural resources has been calculated using three indicators (the share of fuel exports from the country's total exports, fossil energy consumption, and the share of natural resources income from the GDP). The results of the thesis showed that with the increase of the threshold, there is a positive and significant effect between the abundance of natural resources and environmental pollution, in other words, with the increase of the abundance of natural resources, environmental pollution increases. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution, but there is no significant relationship between globalization and environmental pollution.

Nowadays, good governance as a fundamental concept holds significant importance at all levels of organizations and societies. This type of governance, with its focus on transparency, justice, participation, and efficiency, has profound effects on performance and development. Through transparent and responsible processes, good governance strengthens public trust and contributes to sustainable development. The effective establishment of participation by considering diverse opinions and needs leads to improvements in decision-making and execution. Furthermore, good governance, by reducing corruption, facilitating economic growth, and ensuring human rights, provides opportunities for progress and prosperity for both organizations and societies. Ultimately, as a powerful tool, good governance fosters balance, sustainability, and interaction within various social structures. On the other hand, unemployment holds remarkable economic and social importance as an economic and social phenomenon. This situation profoundly affects societies, impacting not only individuals but also the economic system. Unemployment results in the waste of human potential and skills, leading to resource inefficiency. Unemployed individuals not only face financial and psychological challenges but can also contribute to negative societal impacts, including increased poverty and crime. As a result, the main aim of the present research is to examine the impact of good governance on the unemployment rate in two countries, Iran and Iraq, during the time period from 1990 to 2021, using the quantile regression method. Variables such as foreign direct investment, gross domestic product per capita, real effective exchange rate, and inflation rate have been used as control variables to achieve the research objective. The results of this research indicate that the good governance index has a negative and significant impact on the unemployment rate in all quantiles and in both Iran and Iraq. This impact is more pronounced in Iraq compared to Iran. The main reason for the greater impact of good governance on the unemployment rate in Iraq compared to Iran may lie in the unfavorable governance situation in Iraq, where even minor changes have a much larger impact on economic variables. Gross domestic product per capita and foreign direct investment have a negative and significant impact on the unemployment rate in all quantiles in both Iran and Iraq. Additionally, the inflation rate and the real exchange rate have a negative and significant impact on the unemployment rate from the first to the fifth quantile, while they have a positive and significant impact from the sixth to the ninth quantile.

امروزه صنعت گردشگری یکی از مهم‌ترین صنایع در اقتصاد کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و در حال‌توسعه است. گردشگری اغلب به‌عنوان یک موتور مهم برای رشد و توسعه اقتصادی کشورها در نظر گرفته می‌شود که باعث کمک به افزایش رفاه اقتصادی مردم محلی هر منطقه خواهد شد. ایران به دلیل بهره‌مندی از جغرافیای پهناور، آب‌وهوای مناسب و فرهنگ غنی می‌تواند از پتانسیل خوبی برای جذب گردشگر برخوردار باشد. شناخت عوامل مؤثر بر صنعت گردشگری از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است اما شناخت موانع بر سر راه این صنعت می‌تواند به‌مراتب دارای اهمیت بیشتری باشد. ایران به دلیل قرار گرفتن در یکی از پرتلاطم‌ترین مناطق جهان یعنی خاورمیانه همواره در معرض ریسک و نااطمینانی‌های مختلف سیاسی قرار دارد. از طرف دیگر، اعمال تحریم‌های مختلف بر اقتصاد ایران سبب بروز ریسک‌ و نااطمینانی‌های اقتصادی و مالی شده است. قرار گرفتن ایران در منطقه جغرافیایی گرم و خشک جهان سبب بروز تغییرات اقلیمی و اثرات مخرب آن همچون سیل، زلزله و سایر بلایای طبیعی شده است. درنتیجه، هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر ریسک کشوری شامل ریسک اقتصادی، ریسک سیاسی و ریسک مالی و ردپای اکولوژیکی بر تقاضای گردشگری در ایران طی دوره زمانی 1989 تا 2020 و با استفاده از روش رگرسیون چندکی است. نتایج این پایان‌نامه نشان می‌دهد که ریسک کشوری و زیرشاخص‌های آن تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر ورودی گردشگر به ایران است. از طرف دیگر، شاخص ردپای اکولوژیکی به‌عنوان معیاری از تغییرات اقلیمی، تقاضای گردشگری در ایران را به‌صورت منفی و معنادار تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد.

همه گیری کووید-19 به عنوان یکی از بحران های اخیر جهان، هزینه هایی را به اقتصاد کشورها وارد کرده است که توجه محققان و سیاستمداران را برای ارزیابی این شوک خارجی به مفاهیم آسیب پذیری و تاب آوری اقتصادی در قالب شاخص های هشدار دهنده مورد توجه قرار داده است. در این راستا توجه خاصی به شاخص های ترکیبی در راستای کمّی کردن این مفاهیم صورت گرفته است. هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی تأثیر پاندمی کووید-19 بر آسیب پذیری و تاب آوری اقتصادی کشورها با سطوح درآمد‌ (بالا، متوسط و پایین) می باشد. این بررسی برای 150 کشور و با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانلی، در بازه زمانی 2021-2020 صورت می گیرد. نتایح پژوهش حاضر حاکی از آن است که پاندمی کووید-19 اثر مثبت و معنادار بر آسیب پذیری اقتصادی کشورها با درآمد (بالا، متوسط و پایین) دارد همچنین پاندمی کووید-19 اثر منفی و معناداری بر تاب آوری اقتصادی کشورها با درآمد (بالا، متوسط و پایین) را دارد. از طرف دیگر، نتایج به دست آمده نشان می دهد در گروه کشورهای با درآمد بالا، بالاترین میزان آسیب پذیری و تاب آوری اقتصادی مربوط به کشورهای قبرس و هلند با امتیاز 376/0 و 892/0 است. همچنین در کشورهای با درآمد متوسط بالاترین رتبه آسیب پذیری به کشور جزایر مارشال با امتیاز 546/0 و بالاترین میزان تاب آوری به کشور مالزی با امتیاز 740/0 اختصاص دارد. بالاترین رتبه آسیب پذیری و تاب آوری اقتصادی در کشورهای با درآمد پایین به کشورهای چاد و رواندا با امتیازهای711/0 و 566/0 تعلق دارد. بر اساس نتایج برگرفته از پژوهش میزان مبتلایان به بیماری کووید-19 در کشورهای با درآمد بالا، متوسط و پایین به ترتیب 30/63، 33/36 و 359/0 درصد را به خود اختصاص داده اند. همچنین مرگ و میر ناشی از بیماری کووید-19 درکشورهای با درآمد بالا میزان 39/36 درصد، کشورهای با درآمد متوسط 74/62 درصد و کشورهای با درآمد پایین مقدار 865/0 است. نتایج بیان می دارد اقتصاد ایران که در گروه کشورهای با درآمد متوسط قرار دارد، دارای اقتصادی با آسیب پذیری بالا و تاب آوری اندک است. ایران در میان 150 کشور بر اساس آمار مبتلایان و مرگ و میر به بیماری کووید-19 به ترتیب رتبه های 13 و 10 را به خود اختصاص داده است. میزان آسیب پذیری اقتصادی ایران در سال های 2020و 2021 به تریب برابر با 310/0 و 366/0 است و میزان تاب آوری اقتصادی در بازه زمانی 2020 و 2021 برابر با 55/0 و 51/0 می باشد که نتیجه به دست آمده نشان از افزایش آسیب پذیری و کاهش تاب آوری اقتصادی دارد. از لحاظ تئوری اقتصادی این مشاهده برای اقتصاد ایران نشأت گرفته از تمرکز بالای صادرات و نامناسب بودن وضعیت حکمرانی خوب و مؤلفه های اقتصاد کلان می باشد.

جریان‌های قابل توجه سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی در جهان طی دو دهه گذشته تأثیر قابل توجهی بر بازار کار در اقتصادهای توسعه یافته و در حال توسعه داشته است. در تحقیق حاضر با استفاده از داده‌های دوره 2000 تا 2019 و روش پانل دیتا علاوه‌ بر بررسی تأثیر سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر سطح اشتغال در 6 کشور منتخب حوزه خلیج‌فارس از جمله ایران، عربستان، قطر، کویت، بحرین و عراق؛ به بررسی تاثیر متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی، درآمدهای نفت، سرمایه انسانی و کیفیت نهادی بر اشتغال پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان‌دهنده تأثیر مثبت و معنادار سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی بر اشتغال است، به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک واحدی (از GDP)، سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی میزان اشتغال بیش از 007/0 درصد افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین نشان می‌دهد که تولید ناخالص داخلی تأثیر مثبت و معنادار بر اشتغال دارد، به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک درصدی تولید ناخالص داخلی میزان اشتغال بیش از 3/0 درصد افزایش می‌یابد. درآمدهای نفت تأثیر منفی و معنادار بر اشتغال دارد، به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک درصدی درآمدهای نفت میزان اشتغال بیش از 08/0 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. در نهایت نتایج نشان می‌دهد که سرمایه انسانی و کیفیت نهادی تأثیر منفی و معنادار بر اشتغال دارد، به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک درصدی سرمایه انسانی و کیفیت نهادی به ترتیب میزان اشتغال بیش از 7/0 و 2/0 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. با توجه به این نتایج، برای ترویج اشتغال زایی، کشورهای حوزه خلیج‌فارس نمی توانند تنها به درآمدهای های نفتی خود تکیه کنند، بنابراین، این منابع نفتی باید با وجود سرمایه انسانی ماهر با صلاحیت بالا که به شرکت‌های داخلی اجازه می‌دهد در درازمدت در برابر رقابت سرمایه‌گذاران خارجی رقابت کنند ترکیب شود.