Update: 2025-09-23
Parvin Ali Moradi Afshar
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences / Department of Economic Sciences
Master Theses
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the impact of economic freedom and energy poverty on the quality of life in developing countries
2024Many people in developing countries live in poverty and have limited access to adequate food, clean water, shelter and healthcare. Developing countries often have high levels of income inequality, with a small percentage of the population owning a large share of the wealth. Quality of life is an important concept that measures various dimensions of health and well-being of people in society and is affected by several factors. In this research, the effect of economic freedom and energy poverty on the quality of life in Islamic developing countries has been investigated. According to the availability of sample data, the annual time period from 2005 to 2022 was examined. In this regard, with the help of panel data, the experimental models of this study were estimated and evaluated with the panel random effects method, completely modified least squares and dynamic least squares method. The estimation results of the models indicate that the variables of economic freedom and energy poverty in all three models are statistically significant, and their coefficient is positive; In other words, increasing economic freedom and increasing access to electricity in Islamic developing countries in this period of time have led to higher welfare of life. Also, according to the estimates of this study, information and communication technology has a positive and significant effect on the quality of life; And finally, population increase, and GDP growth had a positive and significant effect and inflation had a negative effect on the quality of life. Finally, it is suggested that Islamic developing countries start implementing appropriate economic policies to increase economic freedom and also increase investment in energy infrastructure to benefit from the benefits of energy access in order to improve the quality of life.
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Investigating the effect of Chinese and Turkish inflation on Iran's inflation using the Markov switching model Vector Autoregression
2024Inflation is one of the harmful economic phenomena that have harmful effects on the entire economy of a country leaves The importance of the issue of inflation and its results on the society's economy has caused the researches Much has been done in this field. In this thesis, we examine the role of imported inflation from Iran's largest trading partners, including China and Türkiye, using vector autoregression models Markov switching and data from 1987-2021 are discussed. The results show it is the instantaneous response functions of the inflation rate in regime one in Iran to the impulse or shocks of the inflation rate In Iran, from the eighth period to the end of the inflation rate shock period in Iran, the inflation rate in Iran was greatly affected It has a positive effect. The results of the analysis of variance revealed that the highest inflation caused by Inflation is in the previous period, and after that, liquidity fluctuations have the largest share of inflation fluctuations. also Türkiye's inflation can affect Iran's inflation fluctuations more than China's.
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Investigating institutional factors and economic growth on the reduction of inequality and poverty in selected Asian countries
2024The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between institutional factors and economic growth on poverty and inequality in selected Asian countries from 1990 to 2020, using spatial econometrics. Based on the obtained results, the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the region is confirmed. The research findings indicate that institutional factors have positive and significant spatial effects on poverty in the examined countries, both directly and indirectly. Additionally, economic growth and domestic investment have a positive and significant impact on poverty reduction. Economic growth, government stability, corruption control, democracy index, and financial development have positive and meaningful effects on reducing inequality. Financial development facilitates access for low-income individuals to financial resources and credit. An effective financial system can guide investments along the optimal path. The research results confirm the positive impacts of effective financial development on reducing inequality. The quality of institutional factors, influencing areas such as freedom of expression and government accountability, contributes to improving government performance. Economic growth can create welfare and opportunities. Strong growth generates new job opportunities, increasing the income of poor individuals and motivating them to invest in their children's future. Economic growth increases the overall income of society and creates more jobs, income, and opportunities that can be redistributed.
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Investigating the Effect of Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates on Inflation in Iraq
2024One of the most important macroeconomic variables in developing countries, which is the concern of many economists, is the changes in the inflation rate, which can positively or negatively affect the performance of the country's economy. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate on the inflation of Iraq using time series data during the period of 1992-2022 using the autoregression model with a Autoregressive Distributed Lag; The results show that, in the short term, the nominal exchange rate and the trade openness index had a positive and significant effect on inflation. The unemployment rate and the dummy variable had a negative impact on the inflation index. Also, in the second model, the real exchange rate and the trade openness index have a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate, and the unemployment rate and dummy variable did not have a significant effect on inflation. In the long run, the nominal exchange rate sign is consistent with economic theories. The coefficient of the nominal exchange rate and the real exchange rate and the trade openness index are positive and significant in both models, and the existence of long-term relationships between the variables is confirmed. The error correction coefficient in the first model was -0.63 and in the second model was -0.29, which are statistically significant and this indicates that in each period about 63% in the first model and 29% in the second model respectively. Inflation is adjusted from imbalance to reach long-term equilibrium.
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Impact of Political Stability On Inflation Emphasis on the Informal Economy in Developing Countries
2023Inflation, in developing countries, has always been in the spotlight of economists and politicians and has a special importance. The existence of inflation in many of these countries has been the main challenge of the economy. Therefore, this research examines the role of the informal economy in the impact of political stability on inflation in a set of 45 developing countries using panel data and the generalized least squares econometric method during the period of 2002-2021. The obtained results show that political stability, informal economy and non-corruption index have a negative and significant effect on inflation, while the openness of the economy has a positive and significant effect on inflation in developing countries. The openness of the economy in developing countries is more dependent on imports than exports. Therefore, this openness of the economy is associated with an increase in demand and, as a result, inflation. Also, based on the obtained results, inflation is not only determined by the informal economy and political stability independently, but there is a mutual effect between these two variables. In a situation where political stability and informal economy, each alone, cause a decrease in inflation, the interactive effect of political stability together with informal economy has a positive and significant effect on inflation, and the positive interactive effect shows that in conditions of high political stability, a large informal economy can have a positive effect on inflation and increases it.
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بررسی اثرات گردشگری بر وضعیت اقتصادی خانوارهای ساکن در اقلیم کردستان عراق
2023صنعت گردشگری، بزرگترین و متنوعترین صنعت در دنیا به حساب میآید. تأثیر گردشگری بر افزایش میزان اشتغال و درآمدهای ارزی، رونق صنایع داخلی، گسترش همکاریهای بین المللی موجب شده است تا نگرش کشورهای دنیا به مرز آن تغییریافته و جایگاه مهمی در سیاست گذاری دولتها پیدا کند. از این رو در این پژوهش، اثرات گردشگری بر وضعیت اقتصادی خانوارهای ساکن در اقلیم کردستان عراق بررسی شده است. پژوهش حاضر ازنظر هدف کاربردی و ازنظر راهبرد جزو تحقیقات کمی است. با توجه به بررسی رابطه دو متغیر، تحقیق را میتوان جزو تحقیقات همبستگی دستهبندی نمود. با توجه به نحوه جمعآوری دادهها پژوهش از نوع توصیفی – پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر شامل شامل کلیه گردشگران اقلیم کردستان عراق است. ابزار گردآوری دادهها پرسشنامه استاندارد است که بعد از انجام پردازش دادهها به کمک نرم افزار SmartPLS مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. پایایی به کمک آلفای کرونباخ محاسبه و تائید شد. برای بررسی رابطه بین متغیرهای پژوهش از مدل ساختاری استفاده شد. از روش نمونهگیری تصادفی ساده استفاده شده است. یافتههای پژوهش تائید کننده رابطه معنیدار و مثبت گردشگری بر وضعیت اقتصادی خانوارهای ساکن در اقلیم کردستان عراق است. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر آن است که موضوع: گردشگری برای هر جامعهای مهم و ضروری خواهد بود و میتواند نبض اقتصادی منطقه را در دست گرفته و موجب رونق کسب و کار خانوارها گردد. همچنین این تأثیر تنها به اقتصاد ختم نمیشود و بسیاری از ابعاد دیگر زندگی خانوادهها را نیز در بر میگیرد. از جملهی آنها میتوان به وضعیت فرهنگی اجتماعی، سیاسی و زیست محیطی اشاره کرد. هر چقدر گردشگری در جامعه هدف گسترش پیدا میکند، بهبود وضعیت فرهنگی اجتماعی سیاسی و زیست محیطی جامعه را در بر خواهد داشت و رابطه مستقیمی در بین گردشگری و ابعاد نام برده در زندگی مردم وجود دارد
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Investigating the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues Investigating the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues Investigating the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues Investigating the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues Investigating the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues Investigating the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues Investigating the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues
2023In the value added tax system, the purchases of each company are announced to it by the seller company. Therefore, if a company declares the tax less than the limit, or does not pay the relevant tax, this tax will be transferred to the next buyer, for this reason, all buyers and sellers will be placed in a self-control system. And this makes all companies register in the value added tax system. But its income performance can be weakened in the case of informal labor conditions. Because the incomes from informal labor activities are hidden and not reported. Informal labor has a two-way effect on value added tax revenues, because just as informal labor has an effect on value added tax revenues, value added tax can also have an effect on informal labor. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues in Iran's provinces using panel data in the years 2010 to 2018. The obtained results show that the relationship between informal labor and value added tax income is initially positive and after reaching a certain threshold level, the relationship becomes negative, which means that informal labor has a threshold point on value added tax income. Also, the results showed that the relationship between value added tax revenues and unemployment rate is negative and significant, and the relationship between value added tax revenues and population and GDP is positive and significant. Based on the obtained coefficients, the relationship between the value added tax of the previous period and the value added tax of thecurrent period is positive and significant. Also, the results show that the informal workforce is different in terms of size, and the effect on value added tax revenues in different provinces of Iran. An increase in the tax rate can generate less additional revenues than expected, and this is due to the mixed effect of informal labor, which results in a reduction of the VAT self-enforcement mechanism
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بررسی اثر مصرف انرژیهای تجدید پذیر و تجدید ناپذیر بر ردپای بومشناختی در کشور ایران
2023امروزه مصرف انرژی از فاکتورهای اصلی توسعه و پیشرفت اقتصادی می باشد؛ اما از طرف دیگر مصرف بی رویه ی آن بهویژه سوخت های فسیلی باعث تخریب محیطزیست و بهویژه اختلال در ظرفیت زیستی و درنهایت افزایش ردپای بوم شناختی شده است و این مسئله سبب ایجاد نگرانی برای نسل آینده شده است؛ زیرا روزبهروز توان ظرفیت زیستی کاهش پیدا می کند؛ بنابراین در این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیر مصرف انرژیهای تجدید پذیر و تجدید ناپذیر بر ردپای بومشناختی در کشور ایران با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون آستانهای طی بازه زمانی 1359-1397 پرداختهشده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که اثر مثبت و معناداری بین مصرف انرژی های تجدید ناپذیر، تولید ناخالص داخلی با ردپای بومشناختی وجود دارد یعنی با افزایش مصرف انرژیهای تجدید ناپذیر و تولید ناخالص داخلی، ردپای بومشناختی افزایش پیداکرده و همچنین ارتباط منفی و معناداری بین مصرف انرژیهای تجدید پذیر با ردپای بومشناختی وجود دارد، یعنی با افزایش مصرف انرژیهای تجدید پذیر، ردپای بومشناختی کاهش پیدا میکند. سایر متغیرهایی هم چون جنگ وانداده دولت باعث افزایش ردپای بومشناختی شده است. با توجه به افزایش روند صعودی ردپای بوم شناختی در کشور ایران و همچنین با توجه به اینکه انرژی بهویژه انرژیهای تجدید ناپذیر از اصلیترین عامل بر شاخص ردپای بومشناختی هست؛ لذا با بهبود و توسعه انرژی های تجدید پذیر، برنامهریزی دقیق و اعمال قوانین و مقررات و بهویژه نظارت کارشناسان محیطزیست و انرژی، اصلاح رفتار فعالان اقتصادی، میتوان باعث کاهش ردپای بومشناختی شد.